Today's (TD) America Trade  

Today's America Trade Tip of the Month - How Can Friday's Futures Markets Price Action Predict Monday's Price Movement?

Is it possible a commodity futures market trading methodology may be profitable based on a very simple trading system involving Friday's prices to successfully predict Monday's market opening price?

This futures trading pattern does not appear every week but it's often reflected in the financial trader markets. And when it does appear, the following Monday's prices tend to perform in a predictable manner - possibly leading to trading profit! The trade setup requires Friday's open and close price to trend in the same direction as each other. Interim price movements and price directions are not used or relevant by this futures trading methodology.

The commodities contract price opening doesn't need to go far past the first several ticks, as a price-gap that immediately reverses is sufficient for the purposes of this method, but that's the direction the closing price needs to trend. Monday's opening price is likely to at least first start trending in the same direction vs the pattern of the 2 prices from Friday moving in the same direction as each other, then Monday's open is *likely* to start trending in the same direction immediately after the opening-bell.

Do your own technical analysis of old price action based on 1-minute bar-charts or real-time tick-charts to view the chart price activity and market trade patterns each week. You will see it does not work each and every week but does appear to be more than 50% reliable. This trading method may work particularly well involving online commodity trading, in addition to futures markets and revolving around foreign exchange trading of the FX Forex futures market.

Today's (TD) Trade For America   

Tips for Online Trading & Investing - What You Need to Know About Trading
Commodities in Fast-Moving Market Conditions?

The popularity of some commodity businesses, especially recent 'hot' trading possibilities such as developing a gold trading system and new futures markets ventures, can soar and drop suddenly. In these fast-futures markets when many investors want to trade at the same time and prices change quickly, trading delays can develop across the board. Executions and confirmations slow down, while reports of prices lag behind actual prices. In these commodities markets, investors can suffer unexpected trade losses very quickly.

Investors trading commodities online on-the-web, who are used to instant access to their trading accounts and near instantaneous executions of their commodity trades, especially need to understand how they can protect themselves in fast-market conditions.

You can limit your losses in fast-moving markets if you know what you are buying and the risks involved (and very importantly use a resting stop-loss order actually placed with your commodity broker) and also know how trading changes during fast markets and take additional steps to guard against the typical problems traders face in quick financial markets.

Online-trades are quick and easy, online profitable trading takes time, expertise and work

With a click of a mouse, you can buy and sell commodity futures, futures options or S&P index futures from a commodity broker at hundreds of different markets, forex markets, or commodities markets online, offering trade executions for as low as $5 per futures trade or transaction.

Although online-trading saves investors considerable time and money, it does not remove the homework or risk from making sound investments or trading decisions. You may be able to do day trading and execute a trade in a nano-second, but making wise investment decisions takes time. Before you trade the financial markets know why you are buying or selling, when you will exit the trade, and the risk of loss with your trade.

Set your price limits on fast-moving futures: market orders vs. limit orders

To avoid buying or selling a futures contract at a price higher or lower than you wanted, you need to place a limit order rather than a market order. A limit order is an order to buy or sell a security at a specific price. A buy limit order can only be executed at the limit price or lower, and a sell limit order can only be executed at the limit price or higher. When you place a market order, you can't control the price at which your order will be filled.

For example, if you want to buy the commodity at a set price such as say $6 for a corn contract that was offered at say $6.50 but don't want to end-up paying more than $6 for the futures, you can place a resting stop-limit-order to buy the market on a stop order at any price at $6 or less. By entering a limit-order rather than an at-the-market-order, you will not be caught buying the market at say $7 and then suffering immediate losses as corn dips later in the day on profit-taking, or during the weeks ahead.

Remember that your stop-loss limit order may never be executed because the market price may quickly surpass your limit before your order can be successfully filled. But by using a limit order you also protect yourself from buying the futures market at too high a price.

Online trading is not always instantaneous

Investors may find that technological "choke points" can slow or prevent their orders from reaching an online firm. For example, problems can occur where:

an investor's high-speed modem, computer, or internet-hosting ISP service provider is an issue;

a broker-dealer has inadequate hardware or its Internet Service Provider is slow or;

traffic on The-Web is heavy, slowing down overall usage.
A capacity problem or limitation at any of these choke points can cause a delay or failure in an investor's attempt to access an online firm's automated trading system.

Know your options for placing a trade if you are unable to access your account online

Most online trading firms offer alternatives for placing trades. These alternatives may include cell phone trades, faxing your order, or doing it the low-tech way; talking to a broker over the phone. Make sure you know whether using these different options may increase your costs. And remember, if you experience delays getting online, you may experience similar delays when you turn to one of these alternatives.

If you place an order, don't assume it didn't go through

Some investors have mistakenly assumed that their orders have not been executed and place another order. They end up either owning futures contracts at a price more than wanted, or with sell orders, selling futures they did not want to sell. Talk with your commodities broker about how you should handle a situation where you are unsure if your original order was executed and its price.

If you cancel an open futures contract order, make sure the cancellation worked before placing another trade

When you cancel an online trade, it's important to make sure that your original transaction was not executed. Although you may receive an electronic receipt for the trade cancellation, don't assume that that means the trade was canceled. Orders can only be canceled if they have not been executed. Ask your commodity brokerage firm about how you should check to see if a cancellation order actually worked.

If you buy a commodity contract, you must pay for it before you can sell it

In a cash account, of course you must pay for the purchase of futures or an annuity before you can sell it. If you buy and sell the market before paying for it, you are free riding, which violates the credit extension provisions of the Federal Reserve Board. If you free ride, your broker must "freeze" your account for 90 days. You can still trade during the freeze, but you must fully pay for any purchase on the date you trade while the freeze is in effect.

You can avoid the freeze if you fully pay right away with futures account cash funds. If the sale will make your account go into a negative balance condition you can ask your commodity broker for an extension or time to pay, but you may not get it.

If you trade commodities on margin, your broker can sell your futures contracts without giving you a margin call

Now is the time to reread your margin agreement and pay attention to the fine print. If your account has fallen below the firm's maintenance margin requirement, your broker has the legal right to sell your contracts at any time without necessarily consulting you first.

Some investors have been rudely surprised that "margin calls" are a courtesy, not a requirement. Commodity brokers are not required to make margin calls to their customers.

Even when your commodities broker offers you time to put more cash or t-bills into your account to meet a margin call, the broker can act without waiting for you to meet the call. In a rapidly declining futures market your broker can sell your entire margin account at a substantial loss to you, because the contracts in the account have declined in value.

No regulations require a trade to be executed within a certain time

There are no regulatory agency regulations that require a trade to be executed within a set period of time. But if firms advertise their speed of execution, they must not exaggerate or fail to tell investors about the possibility of significant delays.

More Information

For more information on online trading problems, read visit the CFTC.GOV web site, or read former SEC Chairman Arthur Levitt's message to investors, and the National Association of Securities Dealers' Notice to Members, dealing with online commodity trading. Are you gambling, or investing? The CT Council on Problem Gambling has a quiz you can take to help you decide if you have a problem, and suggests where you can go for help.

What To Do If You Have a Complaint

Act promptly. By American law, you only have a limited time to take legal action. Follow these steps to solve your problem:

1. Talk to your commodities broker, or online trading firm and ask for an explanation. Take notes of the answers you receive.

2. If you are not satisfied with the response and believe that you have been treated unfairly by your broker we suggest you ask to talk with the broker's manager. In the case of an online firm, go directly to step-3 below.

3. If your are still dissatisfied, write to the regulatory department at the firm's main office. Explain your problem clearly, and tell the firm how you want it resolved. Ask the compliance office to respond to you in writing within 30-days. If there is no satisfactory settlement of your claim you might consider filing for arbitration proceedings against your commodity-broker.

4. If after all that you are still dissatisfied, next send a complaint letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, or your State government financial markets administration department, or to the Office of the National Futures Association along with